In the news
On 18 June, Al Jazeera reported the killing of at least 41 people in western Uganda; according to the Ugandan government, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) is the suspect. The ADF is a rebel group based in Uganda that has sworn allegiance to the Islamic State. The militants attacked the Lhubiriha secondary school in Mpondwe, near the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) border. 

In response to the attack, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni stated: "Their [ADF] action -- the desperate, cowardly, terrorist action -- will not save them." Ugandan police spokesperson Fred Enanga said: "As a country, we continue to stand by each other in the fight against terrorism. No matter how heinous the attack or how brutal or inhumane the methods used, the ADF will not be able to succeed in demolishing the solidarity of Ugandans in the fight against terrorism and extremism." 

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the attack. He said: "Those responsible for this appalling act must be brought to justice." He reiterated the importance of "collective efforts, including through enhanced regional partnerships, to tackle cross-border insecurity between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda and restore durable peace in the area."

Issues at large
First, a background to the ADF insurgency. The rebel groups - the National Army for the Liberation of Uganda (NALU) and the Uganda Muslim Liberation Army (UMLA), joined forces to form the ADF in 1995 opposing President Yoweri Museveni, whose government is alleged of persecution of Muslims. The group was routed from its bases in the western Rwenzori region, along the borders of Uganda and DRC, in early 2000, where its fighters had been raiding villages and schools. Since 2013, the ADF has been active in eastern DRC. According to the UN Joint Human Rights Office, they recruited 59 children and killed 1,066 civilians in the DR Congo's North Kivu and Ituri provinces between January 2019 and June 2020. The group continued its attacks in Uganda; in 2021, the Ugandan government blamed the group for suicide bombings in the capital, Kampala.

Second, the failing 'Operation Shujja.' Following escalating rebel attacks in both countries in 2021, Uganda and the DRC signed a Memorandum of Understanding in November 2021 for a military operation, "Operation Shujaa," against the ADF in eastern DRC. The operation aimed to neutralise the group's campaigns. Initially, the joint forces had made significant gains in dislodging the ADF from its bases in the Virunga forest. Subsequently, the group scattered into smaller groups as a tactic to overstretch the forces. However, most recently, the group has been conducting frequent attacks along the border regions of DRC and Uganda. 

Third, increasing insecurity in East Africa. In the previous quarterly report published in March, the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, reiterated that more than 485 civilians were killed in eastern DRC between 1 December 2022 and 14 March 2023 in a series of attacks carried out by several armed groups, including March23 (M23), ADF and Cooperative for Development of the Congo (CODECO). Most recently, on 12 June, MONUSCO reported that more than 45 people were killed in an attack by CODECO in an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp in northeastern DRC. In Somalia, although President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud had announced an "all out war" against the al-Shabab militancy in August 2022, the group continues to expand its campaign in east Africa. On 5 June, 54 Ugandan soldiers were killed in an al-Shabab attack on the African Union base in Somalia.  

In perspective
First, the attack in Mpondwe follows the previous week's ADF attack in Bukokoma village of the North Kivu province in eastern DRC near the Ugandan border, killing at least ten civilians. The increasing frequency of ADF attacks means the group is gaining ground and strengthening its intentions to return to Uganda to establish an Islamic government.

Second, recent developments highlight insurgent groups active in East Africa are expanding across borders. While the insurgent groups are expanding towards relatively stable countries like Uganda and Kenya, Ethiopia's violence in Tigray and Sudan's ongoing conflict is potential grounds for the insurgent groups to amplify.